What expect from 2026's housing market
The Year Wraps Up
2025 was defined by ups and downs in the housing market, with buyers gaining the upper edge for the first time in years.
With prices still elevated and interest rates high, sales slowed down dramatically starting at the end of last year, but are now rebounding from their low point.
Prices level but more homes for sale: Median prices are still staying level, with the City of Fresno sitting at $440,000 (up 4% year-over-year), while Clovis remains essentially flat at $551,000.
Inventory continues to climb—up 40% in Fresno and 27% in Clovis compared to last December—giving buyers more choices and leverage.
Roughly 40% of active listings have already taken price reductions. But more homes are being sold than last year as buyers are able to negotiate better deals.
What’s Next: Welcome to the 2026 “Great Reset”
Real estate is notoriously difficult to predict but experts forecast modest, steady growth ahead provided the economy stays on track. Fresno/Clovis home prices are expected to rise 2-3% in 2026 as sales continue to pick up, reflecting the broader trend across California.
Relief for buyers on the way? Mortgage rates are finally trending down—most forecasts call for 30-year fixed rates to settle in the 5.75%-6.25% range by mid-2026.
Falling mortgage rates could make monthly home payments much more affordable but could also lead to a surge of pent-up buying activity.
Thinking about refinancing? If you can drop your rate by 1% or more and plan to stay in your home 5+ years, 2026 could be the perfect time to lock in savings. Just reach out and we can provide more information on the factors you should consider when refinancing.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2026
Buyers:More homes to choose from + falling rates = growing purchasing power. Spring 2026 should bring the strongest selection and competition. Homes are generally less expensive now, around the holidays and the start of the year.
Sellers: Inventory is tilting the market slightly in buyers’ favor, but well-priced, move-in-ready homes still sell quickly. Spring remains the sweetest selling season, so if you’re looking to sell, this is the timeframe to aim for.
Fresno County Market Update
In Fresno County, prices dropped slightly to a median price of $440,000.
Prices are up 7% compared to last year, and the number of homes sold increased by 6.5%, showing the market is continuing its trend of increased activity.