Spring Update: Finally a buyers market?
The Spring 2026 Market: Prices Softening, Inventory Climbing, Rates Easing
For the first time in a long time, the three big factors that affect the housing market are all moving in buyers' favor at once.
Start with prices. In Clovis, the February median sale price came in at $482,000 — down 8.5% from a year ago. Fresno is telling a similar story, with a median around $390,000, down roughly 5.9% year-over-year.
Clovis active listings are up 37% year-over-year to 235 homes, and Fresno inventory is sitting around 1,750 — roughly triple the pandemic-era lows. Buyers finally have real selection.
The clearest signal that the market has shifted is the price-reduction rate. More than a third of active Clovis listings — 37% — have already cut their price, meaning a lot of sellers came to market too high and are now willing to negotiate (but there's no room for aspirational pricing anymore).
Mortgage rates are coming down, which makes loans more affordable.
The 30-year fixed is currently at 6.30% — a four-week low and down meaningfully from 6.83% this time last year.
Fannie Mae's April forecast calls for rates to ease to 6.1% through the end of 2026.
Bottom line: Put it all together and you have a market where buyers have more homes to choose from, lower prices than a year ago, and the real possibility of better financing later this year. Sellers can still do well — but only by pricing realistically from day one.
Fresno County Market Update
In Fresno County, prices have decreased by nearly 4% since last year, with the median price at $426,000. With lower prices, sales have increased substantially by more than 8% year over year.
When Refinancing Can Save Money
If you bought or refinanced in 2023 or 2024 at 7% or more, the current rates deserve a real look. Rates don't have to fall dramatically to make refinancing worthwhile, but the math moves faster than most people realize.
Here's what a $400,000 loan looks like at different rates (principal and interest only):
RateMonthly Payment Annual Savings vs. 7.0%7.0%$2,661 —6.5%$2,528 $1,5966.3% (current)$2,476 $2,2206.0%$2,398 $3,1565.75%$2,334 $3,9245.5%$2,271 $4,680
A few things to notice. First, every quarter-point matters — the jump from 6.5% to 6.0% alone saves about $130/month, or $1,560 a year. Second, if rates drop into the high 5s later this year (which Fannie Mae and C.A.R. both see as possible), a refinance from 7% saves nearly $4,000 a year on a $400K loan.
Three questions to ask:
What's your current rate? If it's 6.75% or higher, you're potentially in refinance territory at today's 6.30%.
How long will you stay in the home? Refinancing has closing costs (typically 2–3% of the loan). Divide those costs by your monthly savings to find your break-even point. If you'll stay past that, refinancing pays off.
Can you wait for a better rate? Timing is always difficult. Trying to time the bottom is risky. A rate-and-term refinance now with a no-cost option lets you refinance again later if rates drop further.