Fall 2026 Update: Should you wait for interest rates to drop?
Should you wait for interest rates to drop?
We hope you had a great summer. Lately we’ve been getting the same question from clients almost every week: should I wait for interest rates to come down before I buy or sell? We've got the answer below.
Why Waiting for Lower Rates Could Cost You
High rates are the reason buyers have leverage right now. Homes are sitting on the market longer, sellers are willing to negotiate, and you’re not fighting off six competing offers. The day rates drop, all of that goes away.
You’re competing with a few buyers today, not a crowd. When interest rates get lower, you’re going to have multiple offers.
Lower rates raise everyone else’s budget, too. A rate drop doesn’t just shrink your payment, it gives other buyers more purchasing power at the same moment.
You can change your rate later. You can’t change the price you paid. Buy the home now, negotiate hard while you still can, and refinance if rates come down. That sequence only works in that order.
A 30-year mortgage currently averages 6.95%, up from 6.25% a year ago and the overall economic uncertainty means predicting what will happen will be difficult.
Selling a higher-priced home still has benefits
The housing market issplit right now between higher-priced and entry-level homes. Higher mortgage rates are driving down demand for starter homes, and prices have dropped as fewer potential buyers can afford them.However, more expensive homes are seeing modest price increases, reflecting broader economic trends.
It’s a K-shaped economy. The top 20% of households are doing well. Everyone else is treading water as the economy is growing, but more slowly than the last few years. That split shows up directly in housing, where higher-priced sales are holding up better than entry-level ones.
Home sales are running ahead of 2025. Modestly, but ahead — and California housing affordability is better right now than it has been at several points over the last few years.
What it means for sellers. Prices are still holding steady and even rising for more expensive homes, as higher-income buyers are less affected by the current economic factors. Selling right now is still a good option depending on your situation.
Fresno County Market Update - By the Numbers
In Fresno County, the median home price came in at $430,000 — down almost 4% from a year ago and down 4.4% from the month before. Sales activity is flat.
Overall, prices are holding relatively steady, which suggests the market is normalizing even amid an uncertain mortgage rate environment.